Copper prices saw impressive gains in 2024, even breaking the US$5 per pound mark in May. However, the red metal’s gains didn’t last, and by the end of the year copper had retreated back to the US$4 range.
The start of 2025 could be eventful, with Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office, a new stimulus package coming into effect in China and a continued push for greener technologies around the world.
What will these factors mean for copper prices in the new year? Will they rise, or can investors expect the base metal to remain rangebound? Here’s a look at what experts see coming for the important commodity.
How will Trump’s presidency impact US copper projects?
Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president on January 20.
During his campaign, he made bold promises that could shake up the American resource sector, pushing a ‘drill, baby, drill’ mantra and committing to increasing oil production in the country.
When it comes to copper, Trump’s proposed changes to environmental regulations could have key implications. While the Biden administration has sought to toughen these rules, Trump will look to relax them.
“The former president has already pledged to overturn a 20 year moratorium on mining in Northern Minnesota. This pro-mining approach means more mines could be permitted and put into production,” she said.
One project that was being planned before the Biden administration restricted access to federal lands in the Superior National Forest belongs to Twin Metals Minnesota, a subsidiary of Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO,OTC Pink:ANFGF). The company has been working to advance its underground copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum-metals group project since 2006, and has submitted plans to state and federal regulatory agencies.
Another copper-focused project that may benefit from the incoming Trump administration is Northern Dynasty Minerals’ (TSX:NDM,NYSEAMERICAN:NAK) controversial Pebble project in Alaska.
The company has been exploring the Bristol Bay region since acquiring the property in 2001, but the US Army Corps of Engineers denied approval in 2020; the Environmental Protection Agency did the same in 2021.
Northern Dynasty has been fighting these decisions at both the state and federal level. It reached the Supreme Court in January 2024, but was denied a hearing until the dispute is examined at the state level.
On December 20, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy added his support for the project when he petitioned the incoming president to issue an Alaska-specific executive order on his first day in office. The order would effectively reverse decisions made by the Biden administration, including the permitting of the Pebble project.
In addition to Pebble, projects like Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and BHP’s (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP) Resolution, and Hudbay Minerals’ (TSX:HBM,NYSE:HBM) Copper World, both of which are in Arizona, may benefit from Trump’s plan to reduce permitting times on projects worth over US$1 billion.
Currently, large-scale operations like these can take up to 20 years to move from exploration to production in the US. Copper is considered a critical mineral for the energy transition, and is increasingly becoming a security concern as the US is largely dependent on China for its supply of copper.
Copper price volatility expected under Trump tariff turmoil
As tensions continue to grow between the west and eastern nations like China and Russia, it may not take much to threaten markets for critical materials, including copper.
Trump has already promised to impose a 60 percent tariff on all goods coming from China.
A tariff on copper imports could upend the president-elect’s plans for the resource sector. It would increase the prices of copper imports and disrupt the overall economy.
“The risk is that the president-elect’s threatened tariffs, including 60 percent on China and 20 percent on all other nations, could derail global economic growth, lead to higher inflation and, with that, tighten monetary policy and also lead to a change in trade flows. Copper will suffer if demand takes a hit,’ Joannides said.
‘In addition, there is likely to be continued volatility in prices,” she added.
In its recent analysis of Trump’s policies, ING sees an overall negative impact on global metals demand.
The firm believes that many of his plans, including tariffs, will cause the US Federal Reserve take a longer-term approach to reducing interest rates, which could affect investment in large-scale copper projects.
S&P Global expressed a similar view after Trump’s win. Immediately after the election, copper prices sank 4 percent to fall under US$4.30, with the firm suggesting that is likely just the beginning. The organization notes that while the market may have already priced in Trump’s tariffs, a larger trade war could impact prices even further.
Economic recovery in China could further boost copper prices
China’s faltering economy has been a major headwind for copper over the past several years.
The country’s housing market accounts for roughly 30 percent of global demand for the red metal, meaning that any shifts could have significant implications for the copper market.
The sector has been struggling for the past few years as the country deals with economic issues, including fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused disruptions to supply chains and a spike in unemployment.
Ultimately, economic factors struck China’s real estate sector, an important driver of the country’s gross domestic product; this caused the collapse of the nation’s top two developers, China Evergrande Group and Country Garden.
So far, the government’s attempts to stimulate the economy and jumpstart the beleaguered real estate sector have largely failed. In September, it announced measures aimed at property buyers, such as reducing interest rates for existing mortgages by 50 points and cutting the minimum downpayment requirement for homes to 15 percent.
Other changes introduced at the time include more help from the People’s Bank of China, which will provide a lending facility for state-owned firms to acquire unsold flats for affordable housing.
China followed this up with an announcement in November that it will provide additional support for local governments by increasing their debt-raising capacity by 6 trillion yuan over the next six years.
While these measures may not be felt for some time, kickstarting the Asian nation’s real estate sector could be a boon for copper producers and investors.
“If the Chinese real estate market were to post a recovery, this would see domestic demand for copper tick higher and could lead to a tighter supply and demand balance overall assuming all other things remain unchanged. This would underpin even higher prices than we are currently projecting,” said Joannides.
Copper industry needs more investment dollars
With copper demand projected to grow long term, supply-side concerns are rising. According to Joannides, there is already recognition that copper exploration has been underinvested over the past few years.
‘Technology will likely help increase the chance of discovery, and broadly I would say that policymakers are now more supportive of mineral exploration as the push to secure critical raw materials supply has moved up the agenda.’
Joannides pointed to greenfield projects already in the pipeline, including Capstone Copper’s (TSX:CS,OTC Pink:CSCCF) Santo Domingo in Chile, Southern Copper’s (NYSE:SCCO) Tia Maria in Peru and Teck Resources’ (TSX:TECK.A,TECK.B,NYSE:TECK) Zarfanal in Peru.
There’s also Northmet, a Teck and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) joint venture in Minnesota.
Rising copper prices could also increase the flow of money from the major companies into the junior space, where most of the exploration is currently occurring.
“Copper has become the standout strategic preference for the major mining companies. The risk-adjusted cost of developing organic copper assets is higher than the cost of acquiring them,” Joannides said.
This kind of acquisition activity could help reduce the development time of assets compared to companies starting exploration from scratch.
Investor takeaway
While copper supply and demand conditions are expected to remain tight in 2025, competing forces are at play.
One of the biggest factors is Trump’s return to the White House. If the president-elect takes action as quickly as he has promised, investors could soon gain insight on the long-term implications of his policies.
In terms of China, it will take time to get the property sector back to where it was before the pandemic; however, there may be sparks early in the year as new measures start to work their way through the market.
During 2025 it may be even more prudent than usual for investors to do their due diligence on copper and keep an eye on the forces that may affect the market.
Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold shares of Northern Dynasty Minerals.